New HMRC trade figures suggest the very smallest UK goods-trading businesses had a much tougher 2024 than larger firms. For businesses with no employees, export trade value fell 26% year on year and import trade value fell 38%, according to the official release. By contrast, goods exports rose slightly for firms with 10 to 49 employees and 50 to 249 employees.
That does not mean every small importer or exporter had a bad year. But it is a useful warning sign. If you run a tiny online shop, wholesaler, workshop, maker, food producer or specialist retailer that buys from overseas or sells physical goods abroad, the smallest operators may be feeling the squeeze first.
What the new figures show
The release combines HMRC overseas trade in goods data with business-register information from the Office for National Statistics. It looks at trade in goods, not services, and compares 2023 with 2024 across different business sizes.
On exports, businesses with no employees saw the sharpest drop, down 26%. Firms with 1 to 9 employees were down 1%. Firms with 10 to 49 employees were up 2%, and firms with 50 to 249 employees were up 1%. Among the largest businesses, with 250 or more employees, export trade value was down 2%.
On imports, the pattern was also tough at the smallest end. Businesses with no employees were down 38%. Firms with 1 to 9 employees were down 2%, those with 10 to 49 employees were down 4%, and firms with 50 to 249 employees were down 2%. Large businesses were the only group to show growth on imports, up 3%.
The official figures are provisional and they are not a full picture of every part of the small-business economy. Plenty of UK SMEs work mainly in services, and many small firms trade only within the UK. Even so, this is still a useful snapshot of where pressure may be building in the physical-goods side of the market.
Why it matters to smaller firms
For the smallest traders, a few problems can hit all at once. Shipping costs can move against you. Exchange rates can squeeze margins. One delayed container, one slower-paying wholesale customer or one customs problem can tie up a meaningful share of your working capital. Larger firms usually have more room to spread that risk.
That matters even more if your business is already dealing with softer customer demand at home. We touched on that wider backdrop in our earlier piece on why flat UK growth still matters for small firms. If domestic sales are patchy and overseas goods trading is also under pressure, cash can get tight surprisingly quickly.
There is also a practical difference between being small and being tiny. A business with 10 or 20 staff may still be an SME, but it often has a more stable supplier base, more repeat demand and clearer internal processes than a one-person or no-employee operation. The HMRC figures do not prove why the smallest firms were hit harder, but they do suggest scale still matters when conditions are uneven.
For importers, the weaker numbers may also reflect caution. Many smaller firms will have kept stock levels tight rather than risk being caught with expensive inventory. That can be sensible, but it also leaves less room for delays, sudden demand spikes or supplier disruption. If you are already juggling longer payment cycles, the pressure compounds. That is one reason late-payment discipline still matters, as we noted in our piece on how delayed invoices keep squeezing UK SMEs.
What to check now
First, look at concentration risk. If one supplier, one country, one freight route or one major customer accounts for too much of your goods trade, that is where your vulnerability usually sits. You do not need dozens of alternatives, but you do need a realistic backup plan.
Second, recalculate landed cost properly. Many small firms still focus on the headline supplier price and underestimate what duty, shipping, insurance, storage, packaging and returns do to the real margin. If your pricing has not been reviewed in a while, older assumptions may now be misleading.
Third, tighten the boring operational bits. Customs codes, origin data, Incoterms, lead times and payment terms are not glamorous, but smaller firms often lose money through admin slippage rather than one dramatic shock. A cleaner process can protect margin just as much as winning extra sales.
Finally, keep the figures in perspective. This is a national snapshot, not a verdict on your own business. But it is a good prompt to stress-test your trade exposure while things are still manageable. If the smallest goods firms were hit hardest last year, 2026 is not the time to trade on autopilot.
Sources
- HMRC, UK trade in goods by business characteristics 2024, published 27 March 2026
- HMRC/ONS data table, Figure 2: Percentage change in UK export trade value between 2023 and 2024, by business size, updated 27 March 2026
- HMRC/ONS data table, Figure 5: Percentage change in UK import trade value between 2023 and 2024, by business size, updated 27 March 2026
