New regional trade data gives SME exporters a planning check for 2026

HMRC has published its regional trade in goods statistics for the first quarter of 2026, giving small manufacturers, wholesalers and product-based exporters a fresh benchmark for how goods trade is moving across the UK.

The release covers January to March 2026 and breaks overseas goods trade down by UK region and devolved administration. HMRC has also published accompanying tables and business-count data, which means the figures are not only about the value of trade but also about the number of VAT-registered businesses involved in importing and exporting goods.

For an SME, the practical value is not in treating one quarterly release as a forecast. It is in using the data as a sense-check. If your business sells physical products overseas, imports components, or is considering a new market, regional patterns can help you compare your own order book with wider activity in your part of the country.

What has been published

The main HMRC release is the accredited official statistics publication for UK regional trade in goods in the first quarter of 2026. It is supported by tables showing trade values and business counts, split between EU and non-EU countries, with further detail by commodity sections and country groupings.

That matters because many small firms only see trade conditions through their own invoices, freight costs and customer conversations. The HMRC data gives a wider view of whether goods exporters and importers in the same region are facing a similar pattern, or whether your business may be moving against the local trend.

The release also lands against a wider national backdrop. The Office for National Statistics reported that UK goods exports rose by 2.5% in the first quarter of 2026 compared with the previous quarter, while goods imports rose by 4.1%. The trade in goods deficit widened in value terms, which is a reminder that rising activity does not automatically mean easier margins for firms handling stock, freight and currency exposure.

Why SMEs should look beyond the headline

For smaller exporters, the most useful question is not whether national trade is up or down. It is whether the data points to a market, commodity group or region that deserves closer attention.

A food producer, engineering supplier or specialist retailer may find that regional goods export figures support a conversation with a bank, investor, local growth hub or overseas distributor. An importer may use the same data to test whether a recent rise in landed costs is part of a wider trade pattern or something specific to its own supply chain.

The business-count tables are especially worth a look. A change in trade value can be driven by a small number of large shipments. Business counts can give SMEs a better feel for whether more firms are active in a market, or whether value is moving without a broadening of the exporter base.

Three checks for product-based businesses

First, compare your latest quarter with the regional trend. If your exports are falling while regional activity in your sector looks stronger, that may point to a sales, pricing or route-to-market issue. If your sales are rising while the wider market is softer, it may be a sign to protect what is working before competitors adjust.

Second, separate EU and non-EU exposure. HMRC’s accompanying data includes EU and non-EU breakdowns. That distinction is useful when reviewing customs admin, delivery times, customer concentration and currency assumptions. It can also help firms decide where to focus trade-show budgets or distributor conversations.

Third, use the figures as evidence, not as a decision on their own. A small business still needs customer demand, reliable logistics, enough working capital and a clear margin after duties, freight and returns. Regional trade data is a planning tool, not a substitute for commercial due diligence.

What to do now

SMEs that already import or export goods should download the HMRC tables for their region and compare them with internal sales, purchase and margin reports for the same quarter. Firms that are considering exporting can use the data to identify which regions and product categories already have active trade, then speak to local business support bodies or trade advisers with more specific questions.

The release is also a useful prompt to tidy up trade records. Make sure commodity codes, origin information, landed-cost calculations and customs paperwork are consistent. Clean internal data makes it easier to spot whether a change in trade performance is caused by market demand, admin friction, pricing, logistics or supplier costs.

For small firms, the lesson from the new HMRC release is simple: treat regional trade statistics as a quarterly health check. They will not tell you whether to enter a market, but they can show whether your own trading experience is part of a wider shift, and that can make the next planning conversation more grounded.